3.6 billion NFC transactions in 2013
Boston-based Yankee Group estimates global payment transactions originating from NFC-enabled mobile devices will be a mere 110,000 this year, but then jump to 7.3 million next year; 130.2 million in 2011; 970.9 million in 2012, and 3.6 billion in 2013.
The Yankee Group estimates a substantial share of adults are now interested in NFC payments, including 38% for the 25- to 34-year-old age group, 29% for 35 to 44 group, and 28% for the 45 to 54 group. Supply-side factors also are converging, though telecommunications networks and the payments industry still haven’t reached an overarching accord about splitting revenues. The Yankee Group sees as a positive step the fact that the GSM Association concluded earlier this year that carriers don’t need to be compensated with a revenue stream originating from payment transactions because the NFC chip handles the key functions, whereas, at the same time, carriers do have a justifiable claim for compensation for over-the-air provisioning and customer-service calls they take when consumers have trouble with NFC payments.
Yankee Group predicts 2009 will end with about 34,600 NFC phones in use, nearly all of them in Europe. The year 2013, however, will be a “tipping point” in which the number of NFC-enabled handsets will hit 80.8 million, including 13.4 million in North America.
About 21% of North American holders of NFC-enabled phones will use the payment capability by 2013. Major acceptance markets will be high-frequency, low-ticket markets such as mass transit; low-value, low-volume sectors such as vending machines; and low-frequency but higher-value retail segments such as consumer electronics.