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  • Thierry Spanjaard

Payment industry revenue to double by 2030

The end of the health crisis occurring now induces multiple effects: we are experiencing multiple shortages not only in semiconductors, we are in an unanticipated economic growth but some sectors are left behind. The whole world economy has been shaken by the Covid and its consequences in terms of closed borders and lockdowns. It is now in the midst of a huge convulsion before the dust settles and we’re back to more usual slow evolutions. Making forecasts, anticipating the future is always a difficult task, but it is made even harder in these times. However, just now, two major analyst firms the Boston Consulting Group and Capgemini, just published their foresight about payment.

Capgemini recognizes the fast growth of contactless payments, faster transaction settlements, along with consumer demand for a combination between security and user friendliness in the world of payment. They also consider that 2020, the pandemic year, was a tipping point for B2B payments. Capgemini anticipates that BNPL (buy now pay later), invisible payments, biometric and cryptocurrency together will drive digital payment growth.

At the same time, payment evolves in an always evolutive legal framework. Regulators have to find a balance between over regulation and support to the payment ecosystem, says Capgemini. Regulators have to ensure we operate in a level playing field thanks to anti-monopoly measures and we are in a data sharing environment, on the way to open finance. CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) may be a hint of the will of central banks to regain control of retail payments.

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) anticipates more integration between payment and integrated software platforms. They consider payment will include more vertical offers targeting specific industries, along with a growing involvement of traditional financial institutions. The BCG sees the CBDCs as the central banks’ answers to the multiplication of private digital currencies, but does not expect them to reach mainstream retail any time soon. According to them, the regulatory environment will keep on stressing open banking and payment infrastructure.

Among other trends, the BCG stresses the fact that a fast growth industry is bound to attract new entrants and at the same time anticipates industry consolidation. The payment landscape of 2030 may be quite different from today. The BCG estimates the total payment revenue could nearly double to US$ 2.9 trillion (EUR 2.5 trillion) by 2030, up from about US$ 1.5 trillion (EUR 1.3 trillion) today.

It is of course always interesting to read what major consulting firms have to say about the payment industry. However, it is somewhat difficult for each player in the secure transactions industry to establish the links between the mega trends described by the consulting firms and their own strategy and day to day business decisions.

Photo credits: Photo by Jomjakkapat Parrueng on Unsplash, by Jp Valery on Unsplash, and by Christiann Koepke on Unsplash

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