Payments remain country-specific even if global trends arise
FIS, which positions itself as a worldwide fintech, and Worldpay, its subsidiary in charge of payment processing solutions, have just published their yearly "Global Payments Report," an invaluable source of information for every industry analyst interested in the evolution of payments worldwide. FIS say they move US$13 trillion (EUR 11.9 trillion) annually, a third of the world’s commerce and support more than 120 different currencies and over 300 payment methods. The document is available from FIS website.
Among the global conclusions of this document, one can read that Account-to-Account (A2A) payments are taking off globally, essentially thanks to national schemes building upon the instant payments infrastructure. Also, credit cards remain as a major payment means even if they are under pressure by BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) schemes and digital wallets keep on growing. While one had envisioned the inception of cashless societies, Worldpay anticipate an evolution from cash to CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies). Worldpay also considers cryptocurrencies do not yet constitute a significant payment method.
When considering payment at POS, credit cards represent 26% of 2022 total transaction value, debit cards 23% and prepaid cards 2%, giving a total of 51%, while cash amounts to 16%. The rest comes from digital wallets (32%), cash (16%) and POS financing (2%). Worldpay anticipates the share of cash globally to evolve from 16% in 2022 to 10% in 2026.
Worldpay anticipates a global decline in cash: the worldwide cash transaction value, which amounted to US$ 11.6 trillion (EUR 10.6 trillion) in 2018, is expected to be almost halved by 2026, representing only US$ 6 trillion (EUR 5.5 trillion) in 2026. The growth of digital wallets, often under government pressure, is an essential trigger for cash reduction: in India from 37% share of POS transaction value in 2021 to 14% in 2026, in Vietnam from 53% in 2021 to 18% in 2026. Even traditionally cash-driven economies are following the same trend: "Cash’s long reign of dominance at POS in Germany is coming to an end," states Worldpay. And in Japan, the report anticipates cash share to drop from 51% in 2022 to 37% in 2026.
A2A, account-to-account payments, actually include a wide variety of national schemes. For instance, Pix in Brazil is a bank-led scheme expected to account for 35% of e-commerce transaction value in the country in 2026. UPI, Unified Payment Interface, in India was launched by National Payments Council of India (NPCI) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and it is integrated with Google Pay, Paytm and others. Promptpay in Thailand is government sponsored with the collaboration of major banks and expected to account for 45% of e-commerce transaction value in the country in 2026.
While there are global trends, local specificities keep on being the most important character in the payment market. Every country has kept its own payment brands that represent a significant market share besides international giants. For instance, the Germans use Sofort, the Dutch iDEAL, the Brazilians Pix, the Canadians Interac, and in China Alipay and WeChat Pay have established themselves as leaders in the payment market with a combined share of 81% in eCommerce and 56% of transaction volume at POS.
Worldpay analysis has become a regular occurrence every year, and it always more demonstrates the interest of the payment market: global solutions that need to be adapted to the specificities of each country.